Offshore wind resources in the Caspian Sea under climate change

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dc.check.date2027-08-01en
dc.check.infoAccess to this article is restricted until 24 months after publication by request of the publisheren
dc.contributor.authorGhanghermeh, A. A.en
dc.contributor.authorRoshan, Gh. R.en
dc.contributor.authorMartinez, A.en
dc.contributor.authorIglesias, Gregorioen
dc.contributor.funderGolestan Universityen
dc.date.accessioned2025-06-10T09:25:45Z
dc.date.available2025-06-10T09:25:45Z
dc.date.issued2025-08-01en
dc.description.abstractWind energy is significantly influenced by climate change, impacting its variability and utilization. This study examines the evolution of offshore wind resources in the Caspian Sea up to 2090, using the latest climate change scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs included in this work are: SSP5-8.5, considering high emissions from an economic growth based on fossil-fuel consumption; and SSP2-4.5, reflecting a moderate-emission pathway where current policies remain relatively invariable. To enhance the accuracy and robustness of results, a multi-model ensemble is constructed with the Global Climate Models that perform best in the Caspian Sea region. Projections up to 2090 indicate a significant decrease in average wind power density (WPD) compared to the baseline period (1961–2023) – drops in WPD in 16.6 % of the study area are projected from the 2030s to the 2090s. Seasonal variations show a generalized decrease in WPD during autumn and an increase in summer (23 % and 17.5 % in area, respectively). Substantial changes in WPD, ranging from −70 % to +80 %, are projected depending on the region and period. Using Emerging Hot Spot Analysis, the study highlights spatial and temporal shifts in WPD, identifying an enlargement of cold spots, particularly Persistent Cold Spots, in the South Caspian Sea; and an expansion of hot spots, particularly Persistent Hot Spots, in the Middle and North Caspian. This research uncovers the detrimental effects of climate change on the wind resources in the region and highlights the relevance of these results for developing effective energy management strategies.en
dc.description.sponsorshipGolestan University, Golestan Province, Iran (Grant No. 1699)en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionAccepted Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.articleid136355en
dc.identifier.citationGhanghermeh, A. A., Roshan, G. R., Martinez, A. and Iglesias, G. (2025) 'Offshore wind resources in the Caspian Sea under climate change', Energy, 328, 136355 (19pp). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2025.136355en
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.energy.2025.136355en
dc.identifier.endpage19en
dc.identifier.issn0360-5442en
dc.identifier.journaltitleEnergyen
dc.identifier.startpage1en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/17638
dc.identifier.volume328en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherElsevier Ltd.en
dc.relation.ispartofEnergyen
dc.rights© 2025, Elsevier Ltd. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.en
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en
dc.subjectGlobal warmingen
dc.subjectMarine wind energyen
dc.subjectSpatial analysisen
dc.subjectEmerging hot spot analysisen
dc.subjectShared socioeconomic pathwaysen
dc.subjectMulti-model ensembleen
dc.titleOffshore wind resources in the Caspian Sea under climate changeen
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
dc.typejournal-articleen
oaire.citation.volume328en
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