Intermittency and obsolescence: A Croston method with linear decay

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dc.contributor.authorPrestwich, Steven D.
dc.contributor.authorTarim, S. Armagan
dc.contributor.authorRossi, Roberto
dc.contributor.funderScience Foundation Irelanden
dc.contributor.funderVolvo Groupen
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-22T12:18:16Z
dc.date.available2021-02-22T12:18:16Z
dc.date.issued2020-11-03
dc.date.updated2021-02-22T12:02:17Z
dc.description.abstractOnly two forecasting methods have been designed specifically for intermittent demand with possible demand obsolescence: Teunter–Syntetos–Babai (TSB) and Hyperbolic-Exponential Smoothing (HES). When an item becomes obsolete the TSB forecasts decay exponentially while those of HES decay hyperbolically. Both types of decay continue to predict nonzero demand indefinitely, and it would be preferable for forecasts to become zero after a finite time. We describe a third method, called Exponential Smoothing with Linear Decay, that decays linearly to zero in a finite time, is asymptotically the best method for handling obsolescence, and performs well in experiments on real and synthetic data.en
dc.description.sponsorshipScience Foundation Ireland ((Grant Number SFI/12/RC/2289), (SFI CONFIRM Centre for Smart Manufacturing, Research Code 16/RC/3918)); Volvo Group (Volvo Construction Climate Change (CCC) initiative)en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionPublished Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationPrestwich, S. D., Tarim, S. A. and Rossi, R. (2020) 'Intermittency and obsolescence: A Croston method with linear decay', International Journal of Forecasting, doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.010en
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.010en
dc.identifier.endpage8en
dc.identifier.issn0169-2070
dc.identifier.journaltitleInternational Journal of Forecastingen
dc.identifier.startpage1en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/11082
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherElsevieren
dc.relation.projectinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SFI/SFI Research Centres/12/RC/2289/IE/INSIGHT - Irelands Big Data and Analytics Research Centre/en
dc.relation.urihttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207020301382
dc.rights© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)en
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)en
dc.subjectCroston's methoden
dc.subjectForecastingen
dc.subjectIntermittencyen
dc.subjectObsolescenceen
dc.titleIntermittency and obsolescence: A Croston method with linear decayen
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
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