Temperature and precipitation at migratory grounds influence demographic trends of an Arctic‐breeding bird

Doyle, Susan; Cabot, David; Walsh, Alyn; Inger, Richard; Bearhop, Stuart; McMahon, Barry J.

Temperature and precipitation at migratory grounds influence demographic trends of an Arctic‐breeding bird

dc.contributor.author	Doyle, Susan
dc.contributor.author	Cabot, David
dc.contributor.author	Walsh, Alyn
dc.contributor.author	Inger, Richard
dc.contributor.author	Bearhop, Stuart
dc.contributor.author	McMahon, Barry J.
dc.contributor.funder	Irish Research Council	en
dc.date.accessioned	2020-09-11T10:03:03Z
dc.date.available	2020-09-11T10:03:03Z
dc.date.issued	2020-07-17
dc.description.abstract	Anthropogenic climate disruption, including temperature and precipitation regime shifts, has been linked to animal population declines since the mid‐20th century. However, some species, such as Arctic‐breeding geese, have thrived during this period. An increased understanding of how climate disruption might link to demographic rates in thriving species is an important perspective in quantifying the impact of anthropogenic climate disruption on the global state of nature. The Greenland barnacle goose (Branta leucopsis) population has increased tenfold in abundance since the mid‐20th century. A concurrent weather regime shift towards warmer, wetter conditions occurred throughout its range in Greenland (breeding), Ireland and Scotland (wintering) and Iceland (spring and autumn staging). The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between weather and demographic rates of Greenland barnacle geese to discern the role of climate shifts in the population trend. We quantified the relationship between temperature and precipitation and Greenland barnacle goose survival and productivity over a 50 year period from 1968 to 2018. We detected significant positive relationships between warmer, wetter conditions on the Icelandic spring staging grounds and survival. We also detected contrasting relationships between warmer, wetter conditions during autumn staging and survival and productivity, with warm, dry conditions being the most favourable for productivity. Survival increased in the latter part of the study period, supporting the possibility that spring weather regime shifts contributed to the increasing population trend. This may be related to improved forage resources, as warming air temperatures have been shown to improve survival rates in several other Arctic and northern terrestrial herbivorous species through indirect bottom‐up effects on forage availability.	en
dc.description.sponsorship	Irish Research Council (Government of Ireland Postgraduate Scholarship - Grant Number: GOIPG/2016/12)	en
dc.description.status	Peer reviewed	en
dc.description.version	Accepted Version	en
dc.format.mimetype	application/pdf	en
dc.identifier.citation	Doyle, S., Cabot, D., Walsh, A., Inger, R., Bearhop, S. and McMahon, B. J. (2020) 'Temperature and precipitation at migratory grounds influence demographic trends of an Arctic-breeding bird', Global Change Biology. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15267	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1111/gcb.15267	en
dc.identifier.eissn	1365-2486
dc.identifier.issn	1354-1013
dc.identifier.journaltitle	Global Change Biology	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10468/10510
dc.language.iso	en	en
dc.publisher	John Wiley & Sons, Inc.	en
dc.rights	© 2020, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Doyle, S., Cabot, D., Walsh, A., Inger, R., Bearhop, S. and McMahon, B. J. (2020) 'Temperature and precipitation at migratory grounds influence demographic trends of an Arctic-breeding bird', Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/gcb.15267, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15267. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.	en
dc.subject	Barnacle goose	en
dc.subject	Branta leucopsis	en
dc.subject	Climate disruption	en
dc.subject	Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model	en
dc.subject	Productivity	en
dc.subject	Survival	en
dc.title	Temperature and precipitation at migratory grounds influence demographic trends of an Arctic‐breeding bird	en
dc.type	Article (peer-reviewed)	en