Least cost energy system pathways towards 100% renewable energy in Ireland by 2050

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dc.contributor.authorYue, Xiufeng
dc.contributor.authorPatankar, Neha
dc.contributor.authorDecarolis, Joseph
dc.contributor.authorChiodi, Alessandro
dc.contributor.authorRogan, Fionn
dc.contributor.authorDeane, J. P.
dc.contributor.authorÓ Gallachóir, Brian P.
dc.contributor.funderScience Foundation Irelanden
dc.contributor.funderNational Science Foundationen
dc.contributor.funderEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilen
dc.contributor.funderNTR Foundation, Irelanden
dc.contributor.funderNational Natural Science Foundation of Chinaen
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-11T11:01:32Z
dc.date.available2020-08-11T11:01:32Z
dc.date.issued2020-07-03
dc.date.updated2020-08-11T10:46:46Z
dc.description.abstractStudies focusing on 100% renewable energy systems have emerged in recent years; however, existing studies tend to focus only on the power sector using exploratory approaches. This paper therefore undertakes a whole-system approach and explores optimal pathways towards 100% renewable energy by 2050. The analysis is carried out for Ireland, which currently has the highest share of variable renewable electricity on a synchronous power system. Large numbers of scenarios are developed using the Irish TIMES model to address uncertainties. Results show that compared to decarbonization targets, focusing on renewable penetration without considering carbon capture options is significantly less cost effective in carbon mitigation. Alternative assumptions on bioenergy imports and maximum variability in power generation lead to very different energy mixes in bioenergy and electrification levels. All pathways suggest that indigenous bioenergy needs to be fully exploited and the current annual deployment rate of renewable electricity needs a boost. Pathways relying on international bioenergy imports are slightly cheaper and faces less economic and technical challenges. However, given the large future uncertainties, it is recommended that further policy considerations be given to pathways with high electrification levels as they are more robust towards uncertainties.en
dc.description.sponsorshipScience Foundation Ireland and National Science Foundation (Grant number 16/US-C2C/3290); Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (Grant EP/K039326/1); Science Foundation Ireland and National Natural Science Foundation of China (SFI-NSFC Partnership Programme Grant Number 17/NSFC/518)en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionAccepted Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.articleid118264en
dc.identifier.citationYue, X., Patankar, N., Decarolis, J., Chiodi, A., Rogan, F., Deane, J. P. and O'Gallachoir, B. (2020) 'Least cost energy system pathways towards 100% renewable energy in Ireland by 2050', Energy, 207, 118264 (17pp). doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118264en
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.energy.2020.118264en
dc.identifier.endpage17en
dc.identifier.issn0360-5442
dc.identifier.journaltitleEnergyen
dc.identifier.startpage1en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/10377
dc.identifier.volume207en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherElsevier B.V.en
dc.relation.projectinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SFI/SFI Research Centres/12/RC/2302/IE/Marine Renewable Energy Ireland (MaREI) - The SFI Centre for Marine Renewable Energy Research/en
dc.relation.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118264
dc.rights© 2020, Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. This manuscript version is made available under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.en
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en
dc.subject100% Renewable energyen
dc.subjectElectrificationen
dc.subjectEnergy system optimization modelen
dc.subjectUncertainty analysisen
dc.titleLeast cost energy system pathways towards 100% renewable energy in Ireland by 2050en
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
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